Full record
HitmarketsIf Bitcoin is rejected by the 20-week SMA / bull-market support band, ADA falls to ~$0.30–$0.40 (≥60% further decline)
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“you're likely looking at ada you know dropping at least another 60 you know back down to approximately uh 36 cents or so between 30 and 40 cents”
If Bitcoin is rejected by the 20-week SMA / bull-market support band, ADA falls to ~$0.30–$0.40 (≥60% further decline)
- Made on
- 2022-05-17
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.76
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-06-14
Given BTC is rejected by the 20-week SMA/bull-market support band, ADA falls to the $0.30–$0.40 range within the window.
resolved_on is the approximate date ADA first fell into the $0.30–$0.40 band during the June 2022 breakdown (precise daily close should be confirmed at the o-assignment/verify stage). Both the antecedent (BTC rejected by 20-week SMA/support band) and the consequent (ADA reaching $0.30–$0.40, in fact lower) are supported. Long window (deadline 2025-05-17) was satisfied early.
Sources
Cardano: Searching For a Cycle Bottom
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The conditional trigger held: in mid-2022 BTC was rejected at its bull-market support band / 20-week SMA and broke down (from ~$31k in early June to ~$17.6k in June 2022). ADA fell in lockstep from the ~$0.50s in mid-May 2022 into the $0.30s during the June 2022 crash, then continued to ~$0.24 by December 2022 — traversing and falling below the predicted $0.30–$0.40 range, well within the 2025-05-17 window.
Historical summaries confirm the 2022–2023 bear market took ADA down to the ~$0.24–$0.35 area (from $1.31 to ~$0.24 over 2022), i.e. squarely into and through the $0.30–$0.40 band.
Corrections
- conditional condition met: Antecedent objectively occurred within window: BTC rejected by the 20-week SMA / bull-market support band and broke down (~$31k → ~$17.6k) June 2022 per the record's own evidence; conditional scores on the consequent.
Effect on the score
+2.76- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
If Bitcoin is rejected by the 20-week SMA / bull-market sup…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-05-17
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources