Full record
HitmarketsIf Bitcoin puts in a lower low, it will test the summer-2021 lows (~$29,000).
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“i think the next obvious spot for bitcoin to go test if in fact we are going to put in a lower low is is the um is the the 20 the summer of 2021 lows”
If Bitcoin puts in a lower low, it will test the summer-2021 lows (~$29,000).
- Made on
- 2022-04-27
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.27
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-05-12
Conditional on a lower low: Bitcoin trades down to the summer-2021 low region (~$29,000) within the window.
Antecedent (a lower low) was satisfied; Bitcoin then traded down to the ~$29,000 summer-2021 low region (indeed well through it) around May 11-12, 2022. Criterion met on first touch of that region. No conflicting evidence.
Sources
Bitcoin Vs. DXY
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Conditional on a lower low (which occurred), Bitcoin traded down to and through the summer-2021 low region (~$29,000): during the Terra/LUNA collapse of May 9-12, 2022, BTC fell from ~$34k to roughly $26,700 on May 12, 2022 — passing through and below ~$29,000.
BTC continued lower, reaching ~$17,600 in June 2022 and closing June 30 at $19,784 — confirming the summer-2021 ~$29,000 region was fully tested (and breached) within the window.
Corrections
- conditional condition met: BTC did put in a lower low (broke below Jan-2022 bottom, ~$26.7k on 2022-05-12); antecedent objectively occurred, so condition_met must be true for the record to score rather than void.
Effect on the score
+2.27- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
If Bitcoin puts in a lower low, it will test the summer-202…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-04-27
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources