Prediction record
MissmarketsIf Bitcoin falls to the low $30,000s (a lower low), it will rebound to $40,000–$42,000 within about two months.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Missmarkets“if we fall below and put in a lower low and let's say we go to the low 30k level it still likely means we're gonna come right back up to 40 to 42k in let's call it a couple months”
If Bitcoin falls to the low $30,000s (a lower low), it will rebound to $40,000–$42,000 within about two months.
- Made on
- 2022-04-29
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.56
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-06-30
Conditional on BTC reaching the low $30,000s: BTC trades up to $40,000–$42,000 within ~2 months.
The conditional trigger (low $30,000s) fired, but the predicted rebound to $40,000-$42,000 by ~2022-06-30 did not occur — BTC instead continued down to ~$17,600. Window has fully closed. resolved_on set to the 2022-06-30 deadline. No conflicting evidence. (Outcome value/scoring deferred to a later stage.)
Sources
Bitcoin: Lower Low Risk
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
ANTECEDENT satisfied: Bitcoin fell to the low $30,000s in May 2022 (dropping to ~$31,000 and then ~$26,700 during the Terra/LUNA collapse of May 9-12, 2022).
CONSEQUENT NOT satisfied: rather than rebounding to $40,000-$42,000 within ~two months, Bitcoin fell further — down 37.3% in June 2022 to a ~$17,600 low, closing June 30, 2022 at $19,784. It did not trade anywhere near $40,000 within the window; the ~$40k level was not reclaimed at all in 2022.
Corrections
- conditional condition met: Antecedent (BTC reaching low $30,000s) objectively occurred May 2022 per the record's own evidence; condition_met must be true so the record scores on the failed consequent.
Score contribution
-0.56- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.56
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
If Bitcoin falls to the low $30,000s (a lower low), it will…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-04-29
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources