Prediction record
HitmarketsBitcoin will put in a lower low (fall below its January 2022 swing low of ~$33,000) if the Nasdaq also puts in a lower low.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“there's a good chance that bitcoin will put in a lower low”
Bitcoin will put in a lower low (fall below its January 2022 swing low of ~$33,000) if the Nasdaq also puts in a lower low.
- Made on
- 2022-04-26
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.27
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-06-18
Conditional on the Nasdaq making a lower low: Bitcoin trades below its ~$33,000 Jan-2022 swing low within the window.
Conditional prediction: Nasdaq made a lower low, so the antecedent is met; Bitcoin then traded far below its ~$33,000 Jan-2022 swing low, satisfying the consequent. resolved_on set to 2022-06-18, by which both a clear Nasdaq lower low (June 16) and BTC's deep break below $33k had occurred. No conflicting evidence.
Sources
The Risk On Altcoins
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Both antecedent and consequent satisfied. ANTECEDENT (Nasdaq lower low): the Nasdaq Composite fell from its ~16,212 Nov-2021 all-time high to an intraday low of 10,565 on June 16, 2022, and made further lower lows in Oct/Dec 2022 — a decisive lower low.
CONSEQUENT (BTC below ~$33,000 Jan-2022 swing low): Bitcoin broke below $33,000 in mid-May 2022 (Terra/LUNA collapse, ~$26,700 on May 12) and fell to ~$17,600 in June 2022, closing June 30 at $19,784 — a 37.3% monthly drop, the biggest since 2011. Well below the $33,000 swing low.
Corrections
- conditional condition met: Nasdaq made a decisive lower low (10,565 on 2022-06-16); antecedent objectively occurred, so condition_met must be true for the record to score rather than void.
Score contribution
+2.27- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.27
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin will put in a lower low (fall below its January 202…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-04-26
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources