Full record
HitcryptoBitcoin does not reach an average price of $1.3–1.4 million in the cycle following the 2024 halving.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitcrypto“but are we going to go to 1.3 1.4 million probably not”
Bitcoin does not reach an average price of $1.3–1.4 million in the cycle following the 2024 halving.
- Made on
- 2022-04-13
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.76
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-12-31
Bitcoin's average/sustained price does not reach $1.3–1.4 million during the market cycle following the April 2024 halving (through end of 2025).
Deadline (2025-12-31) has passed (today 2026-07-12). Cycle peak (~$126k) was ~10x below the $1.3M lower bound; no average/sustained figure came remotely close. Definitively resolved.
Sources
Bitcoin: Stock-To-Flow Model
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
In the cycle following the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin's all-time high peaked at ~$126,198 on Oct 6, 2025 — roughly one-tenth of the $1.3–1.4 million threshold. At no point through end of 2025 did BTC's price (let alone any sustained/average level) approach $1.3M. Criterion (does NOT reach $1.3–1.4M) held.
Multiple outlets report Bitcoin's late-2025 record high in the ~$125,000–$126,300 range (Oct 6, 2025), the peak of the post-halving cycle, far below the predicted $1.3–1.4M level.
Corrections
- tags: Bitcoin price claim → crypto primary, markets secondary (tag-dictionary crypto-vs-markets rule).
Effect on the score
+2.76- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin does not reach an average price of $1.3–1.4 million…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-04-13
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources