Full record
MisscryptoTotal crypto market cap does not fall below $2 trillion during this bear market, through mid-2024
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Misscrypto“By say mid-2024 the current market cap of the asset class of 2 trillion will actually be the lower bound on on say the the the depths of a bear market.”
Total crypto market cap does not fall below $2 trillion during this bear market, through mid-2024
- Made on
- 2022-03-01
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.78
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-11-09
Total cryptocurrency market cap does not decline below $2 trillion at any point through 2024-06-30.
Criterion is a floor ('does not decline below $2T at any point through 2024-06-30'). Floor was decisively breached by late 2022 (~$736B). First unambiguous breach date used as resolved_on. Window need not fully elapse since a single sub-$2T print already resolves the no-breach claim.
Sources
Bitcoin: The Beauty Of Mathematics (Part 21)
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Following the FTX collapse, total crypto market cap fell under $800B, dropping to ~$736B on 2022-11-09 — the lowest since January 2021 and far below the $2T floor the prediction claimed would hold through mid-2024.
Combined crypto value fell from ~$2.9T (Nov 2021) to ~$798B by end-2022, i.e. the market spent much of 2022–2023 well below $2T, contradicting the 'does not fall below $2T through 2024-06-30' criterion.
Corrections
- tags: Total-crypto market-cap floor claim; 'crypto' should be primary.
Effect on the score
-1.78- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Total crypto market cap does not fall below $2 trillion dur…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-03-01
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources