Prediction record
HitmarketsBitcoin's 20-week SMA will continue declining, and more steeply, over the next two months
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“this is something to keep in mind over the next two months because once we no longer are including these prices up here the 20 week sma should continue to come down even quicker”
Bitcoin's 20-week SMA will continue declining, and more steeply, over the next two months
- Made on
- 2022-03-14
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-05-14
Bitcoin's 20-week simple moving average is lower ~two months after 2022-03-14 (by ~mid-May 2022) than at the utterance date.
Criterion (20-week SMA lower ~mid-May 2022 than at 2022-03-14) is met: price fell from ~$39.4k to ~$29-30k over the two months and the trailing 20-week average necessarily dropped, with the slope steepening through the LUNA crash. Evidence is directional (derived from BTC price path) rather than a published SMA series; a computed 20wk SMA from daily BTC closes can confirm the exact values at final scoring, but the sign is not in doubt.
Sources
Bitcoin Bull Market Support Band
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin closed 2022-03-14 (the utterance date) at $39,377.93. The 20-week SMA at that point was already in decline, its window spanning the post-Nov-2021 rollover from the ~$69k peak.
Over the following two months Bitcoin fell sharply: ~$36k in early May, then the Terra/LUNA collapse (May 7-13, 2022) drove BTC to a low of $25,401.05 on 2022-05-12 (~$29-30k around mid-May). The 20-week SMA window by ~2022-05-14 shed the higher late-2021/early-2022 prints and absorbed the May crash lows, so the 20-week SMA was unambiguously lower — and declining more steeply — than at the utterance date.
Corrections
- horizon type: The pundit explicitly states the timeframe ('over the next two months'); the deadline is the pundit's own stated window, not derived from the deadline table, so horizon.type should be 'explicit'.
Score contribution
+1.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin's 20-week SMA will continue declining, and more ste…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-03-14
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources