Full record
HitmarketsIf the Nasdaq breaks down to a new low in the short term, Bitcoin follows and at least retests its prior low
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“If, if the nasdaq does end up breaking down and putting in a new low in the short term, then I would argue that the bitcoin bears are not going to be going into hibernation anytime soon, and that bitcoin is very likely to come back down and at the very least retest the prior low.”
If the Nasdaq breaks down to a new low in the short term, Bitcoin follows and at least retests its prior low
- Made on
- 2022-02-20
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.94
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-05-12
Conditional on the Nasdaq making a new low after 2022-02-20: BTC declines to at or below its prior local low (~$33k) at least once within the window.
Conditional prediction: antecedent (Nasdaq new low after 2022-02-20) triggered in May 2022, and the consequent (BTC declines to at/below its ~$33k prior local low) was satisfied - BTC hit ~$25.4k on 2022-05-12, comfortably inside the deadline. resolved_on set to the day BTC breached the prior low.
Sources
Bitcoin: The Battles We Face
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The Nasdaq broke down to fresh 2022 lows in mid-May 2022 (Nasdaq Composite made new closing lows on 2022-05-11/05-12, below its earlier 2022 lows), satisfying the antecedent 'Nasdaq makes a new low after 2022-02-20'.
Conditional on that Nasdaq new low, BTC followed: on 2022-05-12 (amid the Terra/LUNA collapse) BTC plunged as low as ~$25,401, its lowest level in ~16 months - far below its prior local low of ~$33k (the Jan 2022 low). BTC therefore not only retested but exceeded its prior low, within the Feb 20 - May 20 window.
Corrections
- conditional condition met: Resolution block establishes the antecedent (Nasdaq new low after 2022-02-20) triggered May 2022; condition_met must reflect that for internal consistency of the scored conditional.
Effect on the score
+2.94- How sure they sounded
- 90%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
If the Nasdaq breaks down to a new low in the short term, B…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-02-20
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources