Full record
HiteconomyThe US Federal Reserve begins a phase of quantitative tightening
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“we are heading towards a phase of quantitative tightening”
The US Federal Reserve begins a phase of quantitative tightening
- Made on
- 2022-02-17
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.82
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-06-01
The Federal Reserve announces/commences balance-sheet runoff (quantitative tightening) by 2023-02-17.
Primary source (Federal Reserve press release). QT announced 2022-05-04 and commenced 2022-06-01 - both inside the deadline. Used resolved_on = commencement date (2022-06-01); announcement was 2022-05-04.
Sources
Bitcoin, Altcoins, and Macro-Economic Conditions
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The FOMC released its 'Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet' on 2022-05-04, specifying that balance-sheet runoff (quantitative tightening) would begin 2022-06-01, with initial monthly caps of $30B Treasuries / $17.5B MBS rising to $60B / $35B after three months. Runoff commenced 2022-06-01, well before the 2023-02-17 deadline.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.82- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US Federal Reserve begins a phase of quantitative tight…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-02-17
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources