Full record
HitcryptoIf Bitcoin breaks below $33k, it falls to approximately $29k (the summer-2021 lows)
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitcrypto“if we go below the the prior low of 33k i i think it stands to reason that the most likely stop next would be you know would be the summer low right so around 29k”
If Bitcoin breaks below $33k, it falls to approximately $29k (the summer-2021 lows)
- Made on
- 2022-02-24
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.76
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-05-09
Conditional on BTC trading below $33,000: BTC subsequently reaches ~$29,000 (±) at least once within the horizon window.
Conditional fully satisfied within the horizon (2022-02-24 to 2025-02-24). BTC broke below $33k in early May 2022 and reached ~$29,870 on 2022-05-09, matching the ~$29k / summer-2021-lows target (prior sub-$30k was 2021-07-20 at ~$29,301). BTC then continued far below (~$17,600 in June 2022), which exceeds but does not conflict with the 'reaches ~$29k at least once' criterion. resolved_on = 2022-05-09, the day both the $33k break and the ~$29k target were realized. No outcome value (o) assigned per stage separation.
Sources
Bitcoin: A Lower Low Ahead?
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Bitcoin fell below $30,000 to ~$29,870 around 8pm EST on 2022-05-09, a 10-month low, amid a broad risk-asset sell-off. Prior sub-$30k print was 2021-07-20 (~$29,301, the summer-2021 lows referenced in the claim). This confirms both the trigger (break below $33k) and the target (~$29k reached).
CNBC: Bitcoin briefly dropped below $30,000 on 2022-05-10 (down >56% from its ~$69k ATH), confirming the mid-May 2022 breakdown through the $33k level toward the summer-2021 lows.
Forbes: 'Bitcoin Just Dropped Below $30,000' (2022-05-09) — contemporaneous confirmation of the sub-$30k print, i.e. BTC reaching the ~$29k region referenced by the claim.
Corrections
- conditional condition met: Antecedent (BTC below its $33k prior low) objectively occurred within the window per resolution evidence; a resolved conditional whose trigger fired records condition_met=true.
- tags: Cryptocurrency price bet → crypto primary, markets secondary.
Effect on the score
+2.76- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
If Bitcoin breaks below $33k, it falls to approximately $29…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-02-24
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources