Prediction record
HitcryptoIf the crypto cycle peaks in 2021, total crypto market cap will peak below $10 trillion (near $7 trillion)
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitcrypto“The whole market capitalization as a whole would probably peak out less than 10 trillion dollars, I think maybe closer to 7 trillion.”
If the crypto cycle peaks in 2021, total crypto market cap will peak below $10 trillion (near $7 trillion)
- Made on
- 2021-05-18
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2021-11-10
Conditional on the crypto cycle peaking in 2021: total crypto market cap peaks below $10T (near $7T)
Conditional prediction. The condition ('IF the crypto cycle peaks in 2021') was triggered — total crypto market cap set its cycle top ~Nov 8-10, 2021. The written criterion ('peaks below $10T') is satisfied: peak ~$3T < $10T. Caveat for the quantify stage: the pundit's point estimate was 'near $7T,' but actual peak (~$3T) was roughly half that — the directional/threshold criterion (below $10T) holds while the point estimate was too high. resolved_on set to the market-cap peak date. (No outcome value assigned.)
Sources
Bitcoin: Time Is On Our Side!
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Antecedent satisfied: the total crypto market cap peaked in 2021. Total crypto market cap first crossed $3 trillion and set its cycle all-time high around Nov 8-10, 2021 (Fortune/Al Jazeera/CryptoPotato report the $3.0-3.1T peak coinciding with BTC's ~$69k and ETH's ~$4,860 records).
Consequent satisfied: the 2021 peak total crypto market cap was ~$3.0-3.1 trillion — far BELOW the $10T ceiling in the criterion (though also well below the 'near $7T' figure the pundit mentioned). Peak was roughly $3T, not $7T or $10T+.
Corrections
- conditional condition met: Antecedent objectively occurred — total crypto market cap set its cycle ATH ~$3T on Nov 8–10 2021 (resolution notes already establish this), so condition_met must be true.
- tags: Total-crypto-market-cap level bet: 'crypto' primary, 'markets' secondary per crypto-vs-markets rule; drives per-tag sub-score on a scoreable record.
Score contribution
+2.76- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
If the crypto cycle peaks in 2021, total crypto market cap…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-05-18
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources