Full record
HitcryptoBitcoin declines to test its 20-week moving average within the coming weeks.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitcrypto“i do expect us to test the 20 week estimate especially since we had this cross in the coming weeks”
Bitcoin declines to test its 20-week moving average within the coming weeks.
- Made on
- 2021-05-10
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2021-05-19
Bitcoin's price touches or breaches its 20-week moving average at some point on or before 2021-08-10.
Criterion is 'touches or breaches the 20-week MA on or before 2021-08-10.' With BTC falling to ~$30k while its 20-week SMA was in the ~$45k–55k band, the breach is unambiguous; resolved_on set to the first clear breach (May 19–23 crash). Precise per-day 20-week SMA values are computed off exchange candle history, not a single citable page, but the direction (price far below the average) is not in doubt. Value (o) not assigned.
Sources
Bitcoin: Battle Scars
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Bitcoin crashed from $59,427.44 (May 9, 2021) to $32,270.87 (May 23, 2021), a 45.7% two-week drop, and fell below $30,000 by June 22, 2021. Its 20-week SMA (lower edge of the 'bull market support band') sat in roughly the $45k–$55k range at the time, so the sub-$35k prices of the May–July selloff decisively touched and breached the 20-week moving average well before the 2021-08-10 deadline.
The bull-market support band is defined as the 20-week SMA and 21-week EMA; Bitcoin broke below it in the May 2021 crash and traded beneath it through the summer 2021 correction, confirming the 20-week MA was breached.
Corrections
- tags: Bitcoin price/level claim → 'crypto' primary, 'markets' secondary per the tag dictionary.
Effect on the score
+1.84- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin declines to test its 20-week moving average within…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-05-10
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources