Prediction record
MisscryptoBitcoin's market-cycle top will NOT occur in 2021 (no sooner than 2022)
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misscrypto“the market cycle peak will probably be uh no sooner than than 2022 and it could be pushed beyond that”
Bitcoin's market-cycle top will NOT occur in 2021 (no sooner than 2022)
- Made on
- 2021-05-20
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.12
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2021-11-10
Bitcoin's market-cycle top does not occur within calendar year 2021 (final top dated 2022 or later)
Fully resolvable from public exchange price history. The cycle top occurred Nov 10, 2021, inside calendar year 2021. The written criterion required the final top to be dated 2022 or later; that condition was not met. resolved_on reflects the date the 2021 top was set. (Outcome value / scoring left to a later stage.)
Sources
Ethereum Market Cycle ROI
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin set a nominal all-time high of ~$68,990-$69,000 on Nov 10, 2021 (CoinDesk/Coinbase data). This price stood as the cycle top and was NOT exceeded until March 2024 — i.e., the market-cycle top DID occur within calendar year 2021, contradicting the criterion ('final top dated 2022 or later').
Bloomberg confirms the Nov 2021 print (~$69k) was Bitcoin's record high until it was finally surpassed on March 5, 2024 — 'for the first time since November 2021' — establishing that no later-2021-or-beyond top occurred before 2024; the 2021 peak was the cycle top.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-1.12- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.12
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin's market-cycle top will NOT occur in 2021 (no soone…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-05-20
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources