Full record
MisscryptoBitcoin's market-cycle top will NOT occur in 2021 (no sooner than 2022)
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Misscrypto“the market cycle peak will probably be uh no sooner than than 2022 and it could be pushed beyond that”
Bitcoin's market-cycle top will NOT occur in 2021 (no sooner than 2022)
- Made on
- 2021-05-20
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.12
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2021-11-10
Bitcoin's market-cycle top does not occur within calendar year 2021 (final top dated 2022 or later)
Fully resolvable from public exchange price history. The cycle top occurred Nov 10, 2021, inside calendar year 2021. The written criterion required the final top to be dated 2022 or later; that condition was not met. resolved_on reflects the date the 2021 top was set. (Outcome value / scoring left to a later stage.)
Sources
Ethereum Market Cycle ROI
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Bitcoin set a nominal all-time high of ~$68,990-$69,000 on Nov 10, 2021 (CoinDesk/Coinbase data). This price stood as the cycle top and was NOT exceeded until March 2024 — i.e., the market-cycle top DID occur within calendar year 2021, contradicting the criterion ('final top dated 2022 or later').
Bloomberg confirms the Nov 2021 print (~$69k) was Bitcoin's record high until it was finally surpassed on March 5, 2024 — 'for the first time since November 2021' — establishing that no later-2021-or-beyond top occurred before 2024; the 2021 peak was the cycle top.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.12- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin's market-cycle top will NOT occur in 2021 (no soone…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-05-20
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources