Full record
MisscryptoBitcoin's market-cycle peak will occur in 2023 (range late 2022 to early 2024)
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Misscrypto“i think the cycle peaks probably going to be sometime in 2023”
Bitcoin's market-cycle peak will occur in 2023 (range late 2022 to early 2024)
- Made on
- 2021-05-19
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-03-31
Bitcoin's market-cycle top occurs in 2023 (acceptable window: late 2022 to early 2024)
Deadline 2024-03-31; resolved as of deadline. The cycle top did not occur in 2023. 2023 was a recovery year (bottom ~$16.6k in Jan, high ~$44.1k in Dec) that stayed well below the Nov-2021 ATH; the actual new cycle top formed only after BTC broke $69k in March 2024. Minor interpretive edge: the criterion's window nominally extended to 'early 2024,' and the new ATH landed March 5, 2024 — but that was a fresh record breakout beginning a new leg, not a 'peak/top' being reached in 2023 or at the window's edge, so the 2023-peak claim is not satisfied. Both facts noted for the quantify stage. (No outcome value assigned.)
Sources
Bitcoin Pep Talk
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
In 2023 Bitcoin ranged from a Jan 1 open of ~$16,600 to a year-high of ~$44,129.56 on Dec 5, 2023, closing the year at ~$42,557. The 2023 high (~$44k) never approached, let alone exceeded, the Nov 2021 cycle top of ~$69k — so 2023 did not contain a market-cycle top.
Bitcoin surpassed its Nov-2021 record for the first time on March 5, 2024, making a NEW all-time high — the next cycle top formed in 2024 (and later), not in 2023. Within the criterion's acceptable window (late 2022 to early 2024) no cycle top occurred; the top that eventually came arrived March 2024+, after the window's 'early 2024' framing had passed price-wise (2023 was a mid-cycle recovery, not a top).
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-0.84- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin's market-cycle peak will occur in 2023 (range late…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-05-19
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources