Full record
HitcryptoIf Bitcoin has a bearish summer and fails to hold its 20-week SMA, Bitcoin does NOT reach $300,000 by end of October 2021.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitcrypto“if the summer for bitcoin is is you know very bearish and instead of holding the 20-week sma it's it's more like trying to get back up to the 20-week sma and testing some other lower values then the chances that we go to a 300k bitcoin by by september october go out the window”
If Bitcoin has a bearish summer and fails to hold its 20-week SMA, Bitcoin does NOT reach $300,000 by end of October 2021.
- Made on
- 2021-05-13
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.82
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2021-10-31
Conditional on a bearish BTC summer (BTC failing to hold its 20-week SMA), Bitcoin does not reach $300,000 on or before 2021-10-31.
Conditional prediction. The triggering condition (bearish summer / BTC failing to hold its 20-week SMA) DID obtain, so the branch is scoreable. The consequent ('not $300k by 2021-10-31') held: Oct-window high was ~$66.9k, ~4.5x below $300k. No conflicting evidence.
Sources
Bitcoin: Comprehensive Damage Report
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Antecedent held: BTC had a bearish summer and broke below its 20-week SMA. After the April 2021 ~$64.9k top, BTC crashed with the China mining ban to a ~$29k–$30k low around 2021-07-20, trading far beneath its 20-week SMA (then ~$45k–$50k) through June–July 2021.
Consequent held: even after recovering, BTC's highest price on or before 2021-10-31 was ~$66,900 on 2021-10-20 (post-BTC-futures-ETF launch). It never reached $300,000 by end of October 2021.
Corrections
- conditional condition met: Antecedent (bearish BTC summer, failure to hold the 20-week SMA) objectively occurred per the record's own resolution evidence; condition_met must be true so the scoreable branch is internally consistent.
- tags: BTC price/condition claim; 'crypto' primary, 'markets' secondary.
Effect on the score
+3.82- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
If Bitcoin has a bearish summer and fails to hold its 20-we…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-05-13
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources