Full record
25% rightmarketsBitcoin reaches $100,000 later in the 2021 market cycle.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
25% rightmarkets“I cannot imagine bitcoin not going to 100k at some point later this cycle.”
Bitcoin reaches $100,000 later in the 2021 market cycle.
- Made on
- 2021-05-07
- Outcome
- 25% right
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.62
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2021-12-31
Bitcoin trades at or above $100,000 at any point before 2021-12-31.
Window closed 2021-12-31 with BTC peaking ~$69k, far below $100k — criterion determinable and resolved at the deadline. resolved_on set to the deadline (definitively resolvable as not-met at window close). Not scoring here.
Sources
Bitcoin: Long Consolidation
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Bitcoin's highest price in the 2021 cycle was ~$68,990 (2021-11-10). It never reached $100,000 before the 2021-12-31 deadline; BTC did not exceed its Nov 2021 high again until March 2024, so the $100k threshold was definitively not hit in-window.
News from Nov 2021 confirms ~$69k was the record at the time; no source reports any BTC print at or above $100,000 during 2021.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+0.62- How sure they sounded
- 90%
- Outcome
- 25% right
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin reaches $100,000 later in the 2021 market cycle.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-05-07
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources