Prediction record
HitmarketsThe two moving averages of the Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top indicator cross within a few days (by mid-April 2021)
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“They should probably cross in a few days at this rate.”
The two moving averages of the Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top indicator cross within a few days (by mid-April 2021)
- Made on
- 2021-04-07
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2021-04-12
The Pi Cycle Top indicator's two moving averages cross by ~mid-April 2021
Cross date (April 12, 2021) falls within the made_on→deadline window (2021-04-07 to 2021-04-15) and satisfies the written criterion. Note: this was the indicator's April 2021 signal, which marked an intermediate top; Bitcoin later made new all-time highs in November 2021 that the indicator did NOT flag. That later divergence does not affect THIS record, whose criterion is solely the April-2021 MA crossover. No outcome value (o) assigned — scoring is a later stage.
Sources
Bitcoin: Pi Cycle Top Indicator
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
The Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top indicator fired a top signal on April 12, 2021 — i.e., the 111-day moving average crossed above the 350-day moving average x2. Two days later (April 14, 2021) Bitcoin peaked at just under $65,000. This matches the record's criterion that the two MAs cross by ~mid-April 2021.
Bitcoin Magazine Pro's Pi Cycle Top indicator (canonical publisher of the indicator, built on the 111DMA and 350DMA x2) documents the April 12, 2021 crossover as the indicator's 2021 signal, which preceded a ~53% intermediate correction over the following 71 days.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+1.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The two moving averages of the Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top indicat…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-04-07
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources