Prediction record
MisscryptoIf Bitcoin capitulates to its 20-week moving average, then Ethereum will fall to approximately $1,200 (its 20-week moving average, ~25% lower) in the short term.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misscrypto“If bitcoin does capitulate to the 20-week moving average there's a good chance ethereum capitulates to its 20-week moving average which is at least another 25 down at around 1200.”
If Bitcoin capitulates to its 20-week moving average, then Ethereum will fall to approximately $1,200 (its 20-week moving average, ~25% lower) in the short term.
- Made on
- 2021-03-26
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.31
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2021-06-26
Conditional on BTC falling to its 20-week moving average: ETH/USD falls to approximately $1,200 (roughly its 20-week MA, ~25% below its 2021-03-26 level) in the short term.
Conditional prediction. The antecedent (BTC falling to its 20-week MA) was satisfied in May-June 2021 — BTC crashed to and through its 20-week MA. The consequent (ETH ~$1,200) was NOT satisfied: ETH bottomed near $1,700-$1,900 in the short-term window, roughly 40-60% above the $1,200 target and well above its own 20-week MA. So with the condition met, ETH did not reach the predicted ~$1,200 level by the 2021-06-26 deadline. Exact intraday lows vary by exchange/aggregator (WebFetch tools could not surface 2021-dated tables), but every source places the low well above $1,200, so the outcome is not sensitive to the precise figure. No credible source shows ETH at ~$1,200 in this window; no conflicting evidence.
Sources
Ethereum: Where are We Now?
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Antecedent triggered: in the May 2021 crash BTC fell from ~$58k (May 12) to ~$30-36k (May 19) and to ~$28.8-32k by late June 2021 — well below its rising 20-week MA (~$40-45k at the time), i.e. BTC capitulated to/through its 20-week moving average within the short-term window.
Consequent did NOT occur: ETH's short-term correction low in the window (through 2021-06-26) was roughly $1,730-$1,900 (intraday ~$1,730 on May 23, 2021; a second low ~$1,700-1,880 around June 22, 2021). ETH never returned to ~$1,200 after March 2021 during this window.
ETH on ~2021-03-26 was ~$1,600-1,700, consistent with the criterion's framing of ~$1,200 as roughly its 20-week MA / ~25% below the made-on level.
Corrections
- conditional condition met: Antecedent (BTC capitulating to its 20-week MA) objectively occurred May-June 2021; condition_met must reflect that so the record scores on the consequent.
- tags: Crypto (ETH) price claim: 'crypto' primary, 'markets' secondary.
Score contribution
+0.31- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.31
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
If Bitcoin capitulates to its 20-week moving average, then…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-03-26
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources