Full record
25% rightmarketsBitcoin reaches six figures (>= $100,000) within the next two to three years
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
25% rightmarkets“i wholeheartedly think that bitcoin will go to six figures um i don't know if it'll do it this year but i do think it'll do it you know within the next two or three years”
Bitcoin reaches six figures (>= $100,000) within the next two to three years
- Made on
- 2021-03-15
- Outcome
- 25% right
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.04
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-03-15
Bitcoin's price reaches at least $100,000 at some point within ~3 years (by ~2024)
Conflicting-timeframe nuance flagged for the scoring stage, not conflicting evidence: BTC did reach six figures, but on 2024-12-05, which is after the criterion's ~3-year / by-~2024 horizon (deadline 2024-03-15). Under the written criterion the target was NOT met within the window (peak was $73,634 on 2024-03-13). Both facts recorded; resolution reflects the deadline having passed with the price ceiling ~$73.6k.
Sources
Bitcoin: My Concern for New Investors
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
By the ~3-year deadline (2024-03-15), Bitcoin's highest price was $73,634, reached 2024-03-13 — it had NOT touched $100,000. It broke the prior Nov-2021 ATH (~$69k) on 2024-03-05 but topped out in the low $73k range in March 2024.
Bitcoin first crossed $100,000 on 2024-12-05 (reaching ~$103,700) — about 3.75 years after the 2021-03-15 statement, i.e. OUTSIDE the written ~3-year / 'by ~2024' window.
Corrections
- Quote wording: Transcript has no 'likely' in this passage; 'likely' was conflated from an earlier sentence. Align verbatim to the actual auto-caption words (matches statement.context) per verbatim-is-sacred; certainty marker 'I do think' unchanged.
Effect on the score
+2.04- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- 25% right
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin reaches six figures (>= $100,000) within the next t…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-03-15
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources