Full record
MissmarketsBitcoin (BTC) will trend decisively into the peak logarithmic regression band at some point this market cycle.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“I do think that bitcoin will trend into the regression ban uh decisively at some point this market cycle but it might not happen tomorrow.”
Bitcoin (BTC) will trend decisively into the peak logarithmic regression band at some point this market cycle.
- Made on
- 2021-03-23
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.31
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2021-11-10
BTC's price enters or exceeds the upper (peak) logarithmic regression band at some point during the 2021 market cycle.
The upper/'peak' log regression band (Cowen's red band, fit to prior cycle absolute peaks) sat at ~$99,922 in mid-July 2021 and rises monotonically, so it was above $100k by the Nov 2021 top. BTC's cycle high (~$68.8k) never entered/exceeded it -> criterion NOT met. This shortfall (the 2021 top failing to reach the peak band) was a well-documented feature of the cycle. Primary tweet URL returned HTTP 402 to the fetcher (X auth wall); its content is quoted from the search index and independently corroborated by the actual cycle top. resolved_on set to the Nov 10, 2021 cycle peak, the decisive point of shortfall.
Sources
Bitcoin: Rejected From the Peak Logarithmic Regression Band (Again)
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Cowen's own logarithmic-regression-band data: a July 15, 2021 post from his account (@intocryptoverse) stated 'The top of our #Bitcoin logarithmic regression band is now at $99,922' and rising over time. Bitcoin's 2021-cycle peak was ~$68,790 (Nov 10, 2021) — well below the ~$100k+ upper (peak) band level, which by November 2021 would have risen further above $100k. BTC therefore never entered or exceeded the peak logarithmic regression band during the 2021 cycle.
Bitcoin's 2021 all-time high of ~$68,790 (Nov 10, 2021) confirms the cycle top fell short of the ~$100k+ upper regression band; even by the record's 2024-03-23 deadline, no 2021-cycle high approached the peak band.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+0.31- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin (BTC) will trend decisively into the peak logarithm…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-03-23
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources