Prediction record
HitmarketsBitcoin (BTC) will not achieve a 100x gain from cycle bottom to cycle top this market cycle; the multiple will be reduced.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“I'm not convinced we'll see a 100x from market cycle bottom to market cycle top this cycle i think it will be reduced.”
Bitcoin (BTC) will not achieve a 100x gain from cycle bottom to cycle top this market cycle; the multiple will be reduced.
- Made on
- 2021-03-25
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.27
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2021-11-10
BTC's gain from the 2020 cycle bottom to the 2021 cycle top is less than 100x.
Criterion (2020 cycle bottom → 2021 cycle top gain < 100x) is met unambiguously: the actual multiple was ~18x. The 2021 cycle top of ~$69k formed on 2021-11-10 and was not exceeded before the 2024-03-25 deadline, so the reduced-multiple claim held for the full window. Note the claim uses 'cycle bottom to cycle top' — the criterion's chosen bottom (2020 COVID low) is the deepest reasonable bottom; any alternative bottom choice (e.g. 2018 bear low) only lowers the multiple further, so the outcome is robust to bottom definition. No conflicting evidence.
Sources
Bitcoin ROI Bands: Is 100x Even Possible This Market Cycle?
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
BTC's 2020 cycle bottom was ~$3,720-$3,860 on Mar 12-13, 2020 (COVID crash). Using ~$3,800 as the bottom.
BTC's 2021 cycle top was ~$68,789 (intraday, Nov 10, 2021); highest 2021 close ~$67,567 on Nov 8, 2021.
Cycle-bottom-to-top multiple ≈ $69,000 / $3,800 ≈ 18x (≈22x even from the earlier Dec-2018 bear low of ~$3,122) — far below 100x, confirming a reduced multiple vs prior cycles (2015 bottom ~$150 → 2017 top ~$20k ≈ 133x).
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.27- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.27
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin (BTC) will not achieve a 100x gain from cycle botto…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-03-25
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources