Prediction record
HitcryptoBitcoin undergoes at least one roughly 40% correction (down toward the 20-week SMA) during the 2021 market cycle
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitcrypto“We probably will at some point, we probably will.”
Bitcoin undergoes at least one roughly 40% correction (down toward the 20-week SMA) during the 2021 market cycle
- Made on
- 2021-03-06
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2021-05-19
Bitcoin experiences a peak-to-trough decline of at least ~40% (reaching its 20-week SMA) at some point on or before 2021-12-31.
A ≥40% peak-to-trough correction clearly occurred during the 2021 cycle: ~40% threshold first crossed ~2021-05-19; deepest ~54% at the ~2021-07-20 low. Resolved on 2021-05-19 (date the ~40% magnitude was first reached). (No outcome value assigned.)
Sources
Bitcoin: Remain grounded
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin peaked near $64,900 on 2021-04-14, then corrected sharply. It fell ~45-53% to the ~$30,000-$31,000 area by 2021-05-19-05-23 (crossing the ~40% drawdown threshold, ~$38,900, around 2021-05-19), and reached a cycle-correction trough near $29,300-$29,800 on ~2021-07-20 — a peak-to-trough decline of roughly 54%, well beyond 40%.
The May-July 2021 drawdown carried price down to the ~$29-30k zone in July, consistent with a retest of the rising 20-week SMA (then in the low-$40k-to-$30k region), satisfying the 'down toward the 20-week SMA' component of the criterion.
Corrections
- tags: Bitcoin-correction claim: 'crypto' primary, 'markets' secondary per the tag dictionary.
Score contribution
+2.76- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin undergoes at least one roughly 40% correction (down…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-03-06
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources