Prediction record
MisscryptoBitcoin's expansion phase will continue trending upward for at least two more years
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misscrypto“this expansion phase will look something like this where it trends it still continues to trend up over at least a couple more years or so”
Bitcoin's expansion phase will continue trending upward for at least two more years
- Made on
- 2021-02-28
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.33
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-02-28
Bitcoin remains in a net uptrend (higher highs, no cycle-ending top) for at least two more years after the utterance.
Criterion (remain in net uptrend / higher highs with no cycle-ending top for two more years after 2021-02-28) was NOT met: a cycle top formed Nov 2021 followed by a ~77% bear market bottoming ~$15.6k in Nov 2022. Evaluated at the two-year mark (2023-02-28), at which point BTC (~$23k) was far below the Nov-2021 top with an intervening cycle-ending top. No outcome value assigned per instructions.
Sources
Bitcoin: The Dawning of a New Era (Revisited)
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin topped at ~$69,000 on Nov 10, 2021 (~8.5 months after the 2021-02-28 utterance), then entered a cycle-ending decline rather than continuing to make higher highs.
By late November 2022, Bitcoin had fallen to ~$15,587 (lowest since Nov 2020) amid the FTX collapse — a ~77% drawdown from the Nov 2021 top, confirming a cycle-ending top well inside the two-year window ending 2023-02-28.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-1.33- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.33
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin's expansion phase will continue trending upward for…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-02-28
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources