Full record
MisscryptoThe crypto bull-market cycle extends past the end of 2021 (it does not top out during 2021).
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Misscrypto“i do think the six cycle this cycle will be uh extended i don't think it's going to be over in 2021”
The crypto bull-market cycle extends past the end of 2021 (it does not top out during 2021).
- Made on
- 2021-01-12
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.62
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2021-12-31
The bull-market cycle's peak occurs after 2021-12-31 (the cycle does not end within 2021).
Criterion asks whether the cycle peak occurs after 2021-12-31. The bull-market peak for both BTC and ETH occurred in November 2021 (within 2021), followed by a year-long bear market — so the cycle topped out during 2021 and did NOT extend past year-end. Determinate at deadline. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
Ethereum bull market support band
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Bitcoin set its bull-cycle all-time high of ~$68,982–$69,000 on 2021-11-10, then entered a prolonged decline through 2022 (down to ~$16k by late 2022). The next new BTC ATH did not occur until March 2024 — i.e. a separate cycle.
Ethereum's cycle peak (~$4,815–$4,878) occurred Nov 9–10 2021, coincident with BTC's peak; a bear market followed through 2022. Bloomberg confirms the Nov 2021 high stood unbroken until March 2024.
Corrections
- tags: BTC/crypto cycle claim; 'crypto' should be primary.
Effect on the score
+0.62- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The crypto bull-market cycle extends past the end of 2021 (…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-01-12
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources