Prediction record
25% outcomecryptoThe total cryptocurrency asset-class market capitalization reaches approximately $10 trillion (±a few trillion) by the end of the 2021 market cycle.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
25% outcomecrypto“by the end of this market cycle we should be around a 10 trillion dollar market capitalization”
The total cryptocurrency asset-class market capitalization reaches approximately $10 trillion (±a few trillion) by the end of the 2021 market cycle.
- Made on
- 2021-01-01
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.58
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2021-12-31
Total crypto market capitalization reaches ≥ ~$8–10 trillion at any point on or before 2021-12-31.
Criterion required total crypto market cap to reach ≥ ~$8-10T at any point on/before 2021-12-31. The 2021-cycle peak was only ~$2.9-3.1T (Nov 9-10, 2021), roughly a third of the low end of the threshold. Threshold was never approached within the window; the criterion was definitively not met by deadline (resolved_on = end of window). No outcome value assigned here per stage separation.
Sources
Bitcoin: The Beauty of Mathematics (Part 7)
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Total crypto market capitalization crossed $3 trillion for the first time ever on Nov 9-10, 2021 — reported as an all-time high. This was the cycle peak.
Total crypto market cap set a record of ~$2.7 trillion on Oct 21, 2021, on its way to the ~$3T November peak — showing the range the asset class actually reached.
Corrections
- tags: Total-cryptocurrency-market-cap claim; 'crypto' is the more central controlled-vocab primary tag.
Score contribution
+1.58- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.58
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The total cryptocurrency asset-class market capitalization…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-01-01
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources