Full record
HitcryptoBitcoin does not trade sideways near $40,000 for three months following January 2021; a significant move occurs within that period.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitcrypto“we should have the answer in a few weeks right we should have the answer in a few weeks because the chances that bitcoin just goes sideways at 40k for three months is not very likely”
Bitcoin does not trade sideways near $40,000 for three months following January 2021; a significant move occurs within that period.
- Made on
- 2021-01-08
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2021-02-16
BTC does NOT remain range-bound near $40,000 (i.e. it makes a significant move, ~≥20%, away from ~$40k) at some point before 2021-04-08.
Criterion (a non-event prediction): BTC does NOT remain range-bound near $40k; a significant (~≥20%) move occurs before 2021-04-08. BTC broke to ~$50k by mid-February 2021 (~+25% from $40k) and to ~$60k by mid-March 2021 (~+50%), so the significant-move condition was satisfied. resolved_on = ~Feb 16, 2021, the approximate date of the first clear ≥20% move to ~$50k (confirm exact date against daily OHLC if precision needed). No outcome value assigned.
Sources
Bitcoin Logarithmic Regression: Discussion of Market Cycle Theory
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Bitcoin started 2021 just below $30k, hit $40k in the first week of January, reached ~$50k in February 2021 and ~$60k in March 2021 — far exceeding a ~20% move away from ~$40k well before the Apr 8, 2021 deadline.
Historical daily BTC/USD data corroborates the Feb 2021 surge to ~$50k+ and March 2021 push toward $60k, confirming BTC did not remain range-bound near $40k in the three months following January 2021.
Corrections
- tags: Bitcoin price/range prediction; 'crypto' should be primary.
Effect on the score
+1.84- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin does not trade sideways near $40,000 for three mont…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-01-08
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources