Full record
MisscryptoBitcoin's price pulls back to retest the 20-week SMA (bull market support band) by end of February 2021.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Misscrypto“i would be shocked if we did not visit it in say january and if we don't visit it in january and we get out into february then i imagine we're going to be very overextended”
Bitcoin's price pulls back to retest the 20-week SMA (bull market support band) by end of February 2021.
- Made on
- 2020-12-16
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.24
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2021-02-28
BTC's price declines to touch (retest) its 20-week SMA bull-market support band at any point on or before 2021-02-28.
Event determinably did NOT occur by deadline; resolved_on set to the 2021-02-28 deadline (the point the window closed with no retest). Weekly 20-week SMA computed from Coinbase Sunday closes; minimum price-to-SMA gap over the whole window was +44%, so the conclusion is insensitive to exchange choice or SMA-vs-band (20w SMA / 21w EMA) interpretation. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
The Bitcoin bull market support band pushes higher!
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
BTC/USD never declined to touch its rising 20-week SMA between the 2020-12-16 call and the 2021-02-28 deadline. Coinbase daily-low data vs the weekly-computed 20-week SMA shows the CLOSEST approach was +44.4% above the SMA (2020-12-16: low ~$19,300 vs SMA ~$13,367). Price ran up (parabolic) the entire window while the SMA trailed far below (SMA rose from ~$13.4k in mid-Dec to ~$27.9k by 2021-02-28), so the gap never closed. Retest did NOT occur.
Even the late-Jan 2021 local low (~$28,800 on 2021-01-27, when the 20-week SMA was ~$20,000) sat ~40%+ above the support band. The band upper bound (21-week EMA) was also never touched.
Corrections
- tags: A crypto price/level bet carries 'markets' as secondary (dictionary crypto-vs-markets rule) so this scoreable record contributes to the continuous market-timing sub-score.
Effect on the score
-1.24- How sure they sounded
- 90%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin's price pulls back to retest the 20-week SMA (bull…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-12-16
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources