Prediction record
HitcryptoBitcoin does not go up 3x during Q1 2021
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitcrypto“there's a higher probability that bitcoin does not go up 3x in q1”
Bitcoin does not go up 3x during Q1 2021
- Made on
- 2020-12-30
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.51
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2021-03-31
BTC does not achieve a 3x price increase from its ~$29k start (i.e., does not reach ~$87k) at any point during Q1 2021 (by 2021-03-31).
Criterion is a full-quarter observation, so determinable only at the 2021-03-31 deadline. Q1 intra-quarter high (~$61.7k) was ~2.1x the ~$29k start, well short of the ~$87k needed for 3x. No conflicting evidence.
Sources
Bitcoin: What can we expect in Q1?
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
BTC opened Q1 2021 near ~$29k (Dec 31, 2020 close ~$28.9k–$29.4k). A 3x move required ~$87k. BTC's highest point during Q1 2021 was ~$61,700 (monthly high in March 2021), reached mid-March when BTC first surpassed $60,000 on 2021-03-13. It never approached $87k at any point in the quarter, so the 'does not 3x' criterion held.
Historical price data confirms March 2021 monthly high of ~$61,700 and month-end close ~$58,800 — the Q1 2021 peak, far below the ~$87k 3x threshold.
Corrections
- tags: BTC claim → crypto primary per tag dictionary.
Score contribution
+1.51- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.51
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin does not go up 3x during Q1 2021- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-12-30
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources