Prediction record
HitcryptoBitcoin undergoes a significant correction within the next two to three months.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitcrypto“in the next few weeks next two or three months i don't at some point there almost assuredly will be a nasty correction”
Bitcoin undergoes a significant correction within the next two to three months.
- Made on
- 2020-11-25
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.94
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2021-01-11
BTC experiences a peak-to-trough decline of ≥20% at some point before 2021-02-25.
Criterion (peak-to-trough decline ≥20% before 2021-02-25) satisfied by the Jan 2021 crash (~$42k Jan 8 → ~$30–32k mid/late Jan, ~24–28%). A smaller ~16% dip occurred right after the prediction (Nov 25→26, 2020: ~$19.4k→~$16.2k), which alone falls short of 20%; the January crash is the clean qualifying event. resolved_on set to 2021-01-11 when the ≥20% threshold was first reached; deeper trough followed ~Jan 21–27.
Sources
Bitcoin: Just a fair warning
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin ran to a record ~$42,000 on Jan 8, 2021, then tumbled ~20%+ to under $33,000 by Jan 11, 2021 — its worst crash since March 2020. Peak-to-trough decline from the Jan 8 high (~$42k) to the late-January trough (~$30–32k) is roughly 24–28%, a clear ≥20% correction occurring before the 2021-02-25 deadline.
Context on the run-up: BTC first broke $20k on Dec 16, 2020 and closed 2020 at ~$29,000, then rallied into January 2021 before the correction — confirming the ~$42k peak that the ≥20% decline is measured from.
Corrections
- tags: Bitcoin-specific claim; 'crypto' primary for per-tag sub-scoring, 'markets' secondary.
Score contribution
+2.94- Confidence
- 90%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.94
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin undergoes a significant correction within the next…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-11-25
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources