Prediction record
50% outcomecryptoBitcoin's next cycle peak reaches at least six figures (≥$100,000).
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
50% outcomecrypto“i fully expect it to go to around six figures”
Bitcoin's next cycle peak reaches at least six figures (≥$100,000).
- Made on
- 2020-11-20
- Outcome
- 50% outcome
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.28
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-11-20
Bitcoin's USD price prints ≥$100,000 at any point within the resolution window.
Criterion is 'BTC USD price prints >=$100,000 at any point within the resolution window (2020-11-20 -> 2023-11-20).' Highest print in-window was the ~$69k ATH of Nov 2021. $100k was first reached Dec 2024, outside the window. Criterion NOT met. No outcome value assigned (later stage).
Sources
Bitcoin: A look at prior bubbles
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin's 2021 cycle peak (the 'next cycle' after the 2020-11-20 utterance) topped at ~$69,044 on 2021-11-10 and never printed six figures within the resolution window. The window closed 2023-11-20 with BTC in the mid-$30,000s.
Bitcoin did not print $100,000 until 2024-12-05 (reached ~$101,512), roughly 3.5 years after its 2021 peak and ~13 months AFTER this record's 2023-11-20 deadline. First-ever six-figure close post-dates the window.
Corrections
- tags: Crypto price bet: crypto primary, markets secondary; current tagging omits the primary crypto tag.
Score contribution
+3.28- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- 50% outcome
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.28
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin's next cycle peak reaches at least six figures (≥$1…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-11-20
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources