Full record
HitcryptoBitcoin's multi-year ROI levels will slowly decline over the coming years.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitcrypto“i do anticipate over the over the coming years that we will slowly dip down”
Bitcoin's multi-year ROI levels will slowly decline over the coming years.
- Made on
- 2020-11-20
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-11-20
Bitcoin's multi-year (e.g. 4-year) rolling ROI metric is lower at the end of the window than at the utterance.
Criterion: 'multi-year (e.g. 4-year) rolling ROI metric is lower at the end of the window than at the utterance.' Computed from public daily price data, the 4-year rolling ROI fell from ~25x (Nov 2020) to ~4.5x (Nov 2023) - a decisive decline that holds regardless of the exact ROI definition (2yr/3yr/4yr all trend down over this span). Criterion met. Anchor prices are approximate round figures from public history; a later stage can pin exact daily closes. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
Bitcoin return on investment macroscopic trendline
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
4-year rolling ROI at utterance (2020-11-20): BTC ~$18,000 vs ~$730 four years earlier (Nov 2016) = roughly 25x (~2,400%). 4-year rolling ROI at window close (2023-11-20): BTC ~$37,000 vs ~$8,000-9,000 four years earlier (Nov 2019) = roughly 4-4.5x (~350%). The multi-year rolling ROI metric is dramatically lower at the end of the window than at the utterance.
Cowen's 'diminishing returns / diminishing reflexivity' thesis is a documented, measurable feature of Bitcoin: each successive cycle has delivered lower multi-year yields as market cap grew, with 'four cycles in a row where diminishing returns played out.'
Corrections
- tags: Claim subject is Bitcoin's return metric; per the Tag Dictionary a crypto price/return call takes 'crypto' primary, 'markets' secondary.
Effect on the score
+1.84- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin's multi-year ROI levels will slowly decline over th…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-11-20
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources