Full record
MissmarketsXRP will continue to underperform Bitcoin (decline in XRP/BTC terms) until Bitcoin reaches its prior all-time high (~$20,000)
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“xrp is likely to continue to bleed against bitcoin over the macro scale until bitcoin gets to its prior all-time high”
XRP will continue to underperform Bitcoin (decline in XRP/BTC terms) until Bitcoin reaches its prior all-time high (~$20,000)
- Made on
- 2020-10-31
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.56
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2020-12-16
Over the period from utterance until Bitcoin first reaches ~$20,000, XRP declines relative to Bitcoin (XRP/BTC lower at that point than at utterance)
Criterion asks whether XRP/BTC was LOWER when BTC first reached ~$20,000 (2020-12-16) than at utterance (2020-10-31/Nov-1). It was HIGHER: XRP/BTC rose from ~1,746 to ~2,672 sats between Nov 1 and Dec 13, 2020, driven by the late-Nov 2020 XRP surge. Evidence contradicts the prediction. (XRP later collapsed after the Dec 22, 2020 SEC lawsuit, but that is AFTER BTC had already reached $20k, so it falls outside the written criterion window.) No outcome value assigned — Stage 1 only.
Sources
XRP: A realistic timeline
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Bitcoin first broke its prior all-time high (~$20,000) on Dec 16, 2020, the resolution point for 'until Bitcoin reaches ~$20,000'. It closed the day near $21,000.
CoinMarketCap historical snapshot, Nov 1, 2020 (near utterance): BTC $13,737.11, XRP $0.2398 -> XRP/BTC ~= 1,746 sats.
CoinMarketCap historical snapshot, Dec 13, 2020 (just before BTC hit $20k): BTC $19,142.38, XRP $0.5115 -> XRP/BTC ~= 2,672 sats, ~+53% vs utterance. XRP was still elevated (~$0.55, pre-SEC-lawsuit) when BTC broke $20k on Dec 16, so XRP/BTC was HIGHER, not lower, at the resolution point.
In Nov 2020 XRP rallied ~+177% month-on-month vs Bitcoin's ~+42%; XRP spiked to a multi-year high (~$0.76-0.90) on Nov 24, 2020 before the Dec 22 SEC lawsuit crash — i.e. XRP OUTPERFORMED BTC during the run to $20k.
Corrections
- horizon deadline: Event-anchored horizon ('until Bitcoin reaches its prior all-time high'): BTC first reclaimed ~$20k on 2020-12-16, the event date and the resolution point already used in the resolution block. The 36-month fallback is superseded once the anchoring event's date is known.
Effect on the score
-0.56- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
XRP will continue to underperform Bitcoin (decline in XRP/B…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-10-31
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources