Full record
MissmarketsTotal cryptocurrency market capitalization peaks at approximately $10 trillion (plus or minus a couple trillion) at the next market-cycle top, around 2023.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“The appropriate place to to put a theoretical peak in the next market cycle in say 2023 would be approximately 10 trillion dollars plus or minus a couple trillion.”
Total cryptocurrency market capitalization peaks at approximately $10 trillion (plus or minus a couple trillion) at the next market-cycle top, around 2023.
- Made on
- 2020-10-02
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.33
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-12-31
Total crypto market capitalization reaches approximately $8-12 trillion at the cycle peak on or around 2023 (by 2023-12-31).
Criterion (~$8-12T at the cycle peak on/around 2023) is decisively not met on either axis: the cycle top occurred in Nov 2021 at ~$3.03T, and 2023 itself never exceeded ~$1.72T. As of 2026, total crypto market cap has still never reached $8T, so no later window could satisfy this either.
Sources
Bitcoin: The beauty of mathematics (Part 4)
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Total crypto market capitalization first crossed $3 trillion on 2021-11-10, reaching an all-time peak of ~$3.03 trillion (BTC ~$68,770, ETH ~$4,867) — the actual cycle top. This peaked in Nov 2021, not 2023, and at roughly one-third of the predicted $8-12T band.
During 2023 (the predicted peak year), total crypto market cap ranged from ~$807 billion (Jan 2, 2023) to ~$1.72 trillion (year-end), rising 108% over the year but never approaching $8-12 trillion — it stayed roughly 5-7x below the predicted band all year.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.33- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Total cryptocurrency market capitalization peaks at approxi…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-10-02
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources