Full record
HitmarketsBitcoin will test its 20-week moving average at least once during the 2020–2021 market cycle
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“we will see tests of the 20-week moving average namely because if you look back during the last market cycle even during the bull run we always were testing the 20 week”
Bitcoin will test its 20-week moving average at least once during the 2020–2021 market cycle
- Made on
- 2020-10-28
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.91
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2021-06-22
At some point before the cycle's bull-market peak, Bitcoin's weekly price touches or falls below its 20-week moving average
Criterion (weekly price touches/falls below 20-week MA at least once before the cycle bull peak) is met. The 2020-2021 cycle peaked 2021-11-10 (~$69k); the sub-20WMA test in May-June 2021 preceded it. The exact 20WMA value is a derived indicator, not a single reported figure, but the ~50% drawdown from ~$64k to ~$29k in weeks makes a sub-20WMA weekly close/touch technically certain.
Sources
Bitcoin: Movin' on up!
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
During the May-July 2021 correction (well before the cycle's Nov-2021 peak), BTC crashed from ~$64k (mid-April 2021) to below $30,000 on 2021-06-22. With the trailing 20-week SMA sitting far above $30k at that time (the prior 20 weeks spanned ~$30k-$64k, averaging ~$45-50k), the weekly price fell decisively below its 20-week moving average, satisfying the 'touches or falls below' criterion.
Corrections
- horizon deadline: 'this market cycle' from Oct-2020 = the 2020-2021 cycle, which peaked 2021-11-10 per the record's own resolution notes; 2024-06-30 is the following cycle.
Effect on the score
+1.91- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin will test its 20-week moving average at least once…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-10-28
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources