Full record
MissmarketsBitcoin continues to repeatedly retest its 20-week moving average over the coming weeks.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“we're likely going to continue testing the 20-week moving average for weeks and weeks to come”
Bitcoin continues to repeatedly retest its 20-week moving average over the coming weeks.
- Made on
- 2020-10-03
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.56
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2021-01-03
Bitcoin's price revisits/tests its 20-week moving average on multiple occasions during the weeks following 2020-10-03 (through ~Jan 2021).
The claim is chart-technical: 'repeatedly retest its 20-week MA over the coming weeks.' Price action shows the opposite — a near-parabolic advance that diverged steeply from the 20-week MA and did not come back down to retest it during the window. Assessed off the price path vs. an approximate 20-week MA; the divergence is large enough that reasonable MA-calculation differences do not change the read.
Sources
Bitcoin: A dance with 20 week MA
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Over the window (2020-10-03 through early Jan 2021) Bitcoin rose almost vertically: ~$10,500-$11,000 in early Oct 2020, ~$19,000 by late Nov 2020, ~$29,000 by end Dec 2020, and above $40,000 by Jan 7-8, 2021 — a ~4x move that pulled sharply away from the 20-week moving average (which sat near ~$10,000 at the start of the window) rather than repeatedly returning to test it.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-0.56- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin continues to repeatedly retest its 20-week moving a…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-10-03
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources