Full record
MisscryptoBitcoin will not break out to ~$18,000 in the immediate near term
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Misscrypto“i don't think we're immediately gonna break out to like 18k or anything”
Bitcoin will not break out to ~$18,000 in the immediate near term
- Made on
- 2020-10-24
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.31
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2020-11-18
Bitcoin does not trade at or above ~$18,000 within ~3 months of the utterance (by ~2021-01-24)
Criterion clearly not met: BTC broke to ~$18k about 25 days after the utterance, far inside the ~3-month window. No conflicting evidence.
Sources
Bitcoin: To $12k or $14k?
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
BTC traded above $18,000 for the first time since Dec 2017 on 2020-11-18 (intraday ~$18,172), i.e. within ~1 month of the 2020-10-24 utterance and well inside the ~3-month near-term window (by ~2021-01-24). Criterion says the claim requires BTC NOT to reach ~$18k in that window; it did.
BTC continued upward, crossing $20,000 on 2020-12-16, further confirming an $18k breakout occurred within the near-term window.
Corrections
- tags: Bitcoin price/level claim → primary 'crypto', 'markets' secondary.
Effect on the score
+0.31- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin will not break out to ~$18,000 in the immediate nea…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-10-24
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources