Full record
HitmarketsBitcoin will not reach $100,000 before Q4 2021 (it will take more than another year)
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“i still contend it's going to take longer than another year”
Bitcoin will not reach $100,000 before Q4 2021 (it will take more than another year)
- Made on
- 2020-10-30
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.86
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2021-10-30
Bitcoin does not trade at or above $100,000 within one year of the utterance (before ~2021-10-30)
Clear resolution: BTC never approached $100k before the 2021-10-30 deadline. Its 2021 all-time high (~$68,789 on Nov 10, 2021) fell after the deadline and was still ~31% short of $100k. No conflicting evidence.
Sources
Bitcoin Logarithmic Regression
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Bitcoin's highest price during the one-year window (utterance 2020-10-30 to ~2021-10-30) stayed far below $100,000; the 2021 cycle top was $68,789.63 (~$69k), and that peak occurred on 2021-11-10, i.e. AFTER the deadline. At no point on or before 2021-10-30 did BTC trade at or above $100,000. Criterion (did NOT reach $100k within the year) is satisfied.
Corroboration that BTC's late-2021 record was ~$69k (never near $100k in 2021).
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.86- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin will not reach $100,000 before Q4 2021 (it will tak…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-10-30
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources