Prediction record
MissmarketsIn the bear market following this cycle's peak, Bitcoin will bottom out between $30,000 and $50,000
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Missmarkets“probably bottom out maybe between 30 to 50 000”
In the bear market following this cycle's peak, Bitcoin will bottom out between $30,000 and $50,000
- Made on
- 2020-10-30
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-11-21
The low of the bear market following the 2020–2024 cycle peak is between $30,000 and $50,000
Clear resolution. Criterion anchors on 'the 2020-2024 cycle peak,' i.e. the ~$69k Nov 2021 top. The subsequent bear bottomed at ~$15.5k (Nov 21, 2022), roughly half the low end of the predicted $30k-$50k band — prediction false. Deadline (2025-12-31) has passed and BTC never made a lower low near $30-50k after; the ~$15.5k Nov 2022 print stands as the bear low. No conflicting evidence.
Sources
Bitcoin Logarithmic Regression
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
The bear market following the 2020-2024 cycle peak (~$68,789, Nov 2021) bottomed at approximately $15,476-$15,742 on 2022-11-21, driven by the FTX collapse — a ~77% drawdown from the peak. This low is far BELOW the predicted $30,000-$50,000 range.
Corroboration of the sub-$16k November 2022 bottom following the FTX collapse.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-0.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
In the bear market following this cycle's peak, Bitcoin wil…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-10-30
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources