Full record
MissmarketsBitcoin will not return to its prior all-time high of ~$20,000 until Q4 2021 at the earliest (Q4 2021–Q1 2022 expected window)
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“my contention for getting to the prior all-time high of 20k has has been historically the fourth quarter of 2021 at the earliest to maybe the first quarter of 2022”
Bitcoin will not return to its prior all-time high of ~$20,000 until Q4 2021 at the earliest (Q4 2021–Q1 2022 expected window)
- Made on
- 2020-10-23
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.33
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2020-12-16
Bitcoin first reaches/sustains ~$20,000 no earlier than 2021-10-01; reaching $20,000 before that date falsifies the claim
Written criterion is unambiguous and clearly not met: BTC returned to/exceeded ~$20k in Dec 2020, far earlier than the Q4-2021-at-earliest window. No conflicting evidence.
Sources
Bitcoin Stepping Stones
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Bitcoin broke through $20,000 for the first time ever on 2020-12-16 (~$20,817 intraday), roughly 14 months BEFORE the claim's earliest permitted date of 2021-10-01. Criterion states reaching $20,000 before 2021-10-01 falsifies the claim; this occurred.
Forbes confirms fresh all-time high above $20,000 on 2020-12-16.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.33- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin will not return to its prior all-time high of ~$20,…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-10-23
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources