Full record
MisscryptoBitcoin's 20-week moving average holds as support at its first major test in 2021 (price does not sustainably break below it).
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Misscrypto“either the 20 week to hold now and for us to continue back up or it's going to hold in my opinion in 2021 so the first test of it in 2021”
Bitcoin's 20-week moving average holds as support at its first major test in 2021 (price does not sustainably break below it).
- Made on
- 2020-09-06
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.46
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2021-05-23
At the first major retest of the 20-week moving average during 2021, Bitcoin does not close weekly below it for a sustained period (i.e. the level holds as support).
At the first major test in 2021 the 20-week moving average did NOT hold as support — BTC closed weekly well below it for a sustained multi-month period. Exact 20-week SMA values are model-dependent, but the ~$30k crash low vs. a ~$45k+ average leaves no ambiguity that the level was decisively lost.
Sources
Bitcoin price: Thoughts on the next 6-12 months
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The first major retest of the rising trend came in the May 2021 crash: BTC fell from ~$58k (2021-05-12) to ~$30k–$36k by 2021-05-19, a >50% drop from the mid-April ~$64k high, closing weekly far below its 20-week moving average (which sat in the ~$45k–$48k zone at that time).
The break was sustained, not a wick: after bottoming ~2021-07-19, BTC did not reclaim the level and return toward its highs until the autumn rally, only regaining ~$52k in early September and making new highs on 2021-11-07 — i.e. weekly closes stayed below the 20-week MA for roughly May through October 2021.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+0.46- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin's 20-week moving average holds as support at its fi…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-09-06
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources