Full record
MisscryptoThe next Bitcoin market-cycle blow-off top occurs no earlier than Q4 2022 and most likely in 2023.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Misscrypto“I think that it's more likely to be in 2023”
The next Bitcoin market-cycle blow-off top occurs no earlier than Q4 2022 and most likely in 2023.
- Made on
- 2020-08-20
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.46
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-12-31
The next BTC market-cycle blow-off top occurs no earlier than Q4 2022 and by end of 2023.
Prediction fails on both stated criteria: the actual cycle blow-off top (Nov 2021) came earlier than 'no earlier than Q4 2022', and no blow-off top occurred within the Q4-2022-to-end-2023 window. Outcome value/scoring deferred to a later stage.
Sources
Bitcoin: Price corrections to the 20 week moving average
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The Bitcoin market-cycle blow-off top of the cycle following the Aug-2020 prediction occurred on 2021-11-10 at ~$68,982 — i.e. BEFORE the predicted 'no earlier than Q4 2022' window.
Through the predicted window (Q4 2022 to end of 2023) no blow-off top occurred: BTC crashed into the Nov-2022 bear-market low (~$15.5k, FTX collapse) and only recovered to ~$42k by end of Dec 2023. The Nov-2021 high acted as resistance through 2022-2023.
The next all-time-high blow-off after Nov 2021 came on 2024-03-05 (~$69,325 intraday), outside the predicted window.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+0.46- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The next Bitcoin market-cycle blow-off top occurs no earlie…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-08-20
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources