Prediction record

Hitcrypto

Bitcoin returns to its ~$20,000 regression fair value within about 15 months

A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on 2020-07-15.

VideoPrimary sourcecryptomarkets

Scored record

Hitcrypto

“we're going to get to the fair value of bitcoin at 20k maybe in about you know 15 months or so”

Bitcoin returns to its ~$20,000 regression fair value within about 15 months

Made on: 2020-07-15
Outcome: Hit
Importance: 3 / 5
Contribution: +2.86

Criterion

Resolution status: resolved
Resolved on: 2020-12-16

Bitcoin reaches $20,000 at some point by 2021-10-15

Criterion (BTC reaches $20,000 by 2021-10-15) is met; first crossing on 2020-12-16. No outcome value assigned.

Sources

Bitcoin: A Story of Bubbles
YouTube · 2020-07-15
Source

Outcome evidence

Bitcoin broke above $20,000 for the first time ever on 2020-12-16 — roughly 5 months after the 2020-07-15 prediction and well inside the ~15-month window ending 2021-10-15.
Evidence
Independent confirmation of the same 2020-12-16 milestone (BTC passed $20K and reached an all-time high).
Evidence

Corrections

tags: Crypto-vs-markets rule: a Bitcoin price bet takes 'crypto' primary, 'markets' secondary.
horizon type: The pundit explicitly stated the '15 months' duration; that is a stated horizon, not an inference from the deadline table. Deadline value 2021-10-15 unchanged.

Score contribution

+2.86

Confidence: 85%
Outcome: Hit
Importance: 3 / 5
Contribution: +2.86

This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.

Provenance

Bitcoin returns to its ~$20,000 regression fair value withi…

Methodology version: v1.0.0
Last computed: July 18, 2026
Made on: 2020-07-15

How this profile was built

Scored by independent judges 2026-07-18
Predictions gathered and sourced 2026-07-07
Independently verified against sources 2026-07-18

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