Full record

Hitcrypto

Bitcoin returns to its ~$20,000 regression fair value within about 15 months

A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on 2020-07-15.

VideoQuote from the original sourcecryptomarkets

Scored prediction

Hitcrypto

“we're going to get to the fair value of bitcoin at 20k maybe in about you know 15 months or so”

Bitcoin returns to its ~$20,000 regression fair value within about 15 months

Made on: 2020-07-15
Outcome: Hit
Importance: 3 / 5
Effect on score: +2.86

What counted as right

Status: resolved
Settled on: 2020-12-16

Bitcoin reaches $20,000 at some point by 2021-10-15

Criterion (BTC reaches $20,000 by 2021-10-15) is met; first crossing on 2020-12-16. No outcome value assigned.

Sources

Bitcoin: A Story of Bubbles
YouTube · 2020-07-15
Source

Evidence of what happened

Bitcoin broke above $20,000 for the first time ever on 2020-12-16 — roughly 5 months after the 2020-07-15 prediction and well inside the ~15-month window ending 2021-10-15.
Evidence
Independent confirmation of the same 2020-12-16 milestone (BTC passed $20K and reached an all-time high).
Evidence

Corrections

tags: Crypto-vs-markets rule: a Bitcoin price bet takes 'crypto' primary, 'markets' secondary.
horizon type: The pundit explicitly stated the '15 months' duration; that is a stated horizon, not an inference from the deadline table. Deadline value 2021-10-15 unchanged.

Effect on the score

+2.86

How sure they sounded: 85%
Outcome: Hit
Importance: 3 / 5

This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.

Where this came from

Bitcoin returns to its ~$20,000 regression fair value withi…

Methodology version: v1.0.0
Last computed: August 2, 2026
Made on: 2020-07-15

How this profile was built

Scored by independent judges 2026-07-18
Predictions gathered and sourced 2026-07-07
Independently verified against sources 2026-07-18

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