Full record
75% rightcryptoBitcoin reaches $100,000–$200,000 after breaking above $20,000 resistance, in 2021 or early 2022
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
75% rightcrypto“maybe we come up to it uh sometime in 2021 but hold it as resistance and then finally break it uh into 2021 maybe beginning of 2022 and then we start to move parabolic um to maybe you know or between one to two hundred thousand dollars”
Bitcoin reaches $100,000–$200,000 after breaking above $20,000 resistance, in 2021 or early 2022
- Made on
- 2020-07-18
- Outcome
- 75% right
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.76
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-06-30
Given Bitcoin broke above $20,000, it reaches $100,000–$200,000 at some point by 2022-06-30
Written criterion (BTC reaches $100,000–$200,000 by 2022-06-30) not met: cycle peak was ~$69k, roughly a third of the low end of the predicted range. No credible source shows any BTC print at $100k before the deadline. resolved_on set to the deadline since the window fully elapsed without the threshold being touched.
Sources
Bitcoin: The preamble to the bull market
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Bitcoin's all-time high during the 2021 cycle was ~$68,789 on Nov 10, 2021 — it never traded at or above $100,000 in 2021 or the first half of 2022.
By the June 30, 2022 deadline Bitcoin had fallen into a deep bear market, trading around $19,000–$20,000 — nowhere near the $100k–$200k target.
Corrections
- conditional condition met: BTC broke above $20,000 in Dec 2020; condition occurred, so the record scores on the consequent (reaching $100k–$200k), which it missed.
- certainty verbatim marker: Quote is saturated with 'maybe'; capturing it sets an appropriately low p for calibration.
- tags: Bitcoin price target: crypto primary, markets secondary.
Effect on the score
+2.76- How sure they sounded
- 55%
- Outcome
- 75% right
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin reaches $100,000–$200,000 after breaking above $20,…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-07-18
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources