Prediction record
HitcryptoADA (Cardano) rallies in anticipation of the Shelley release within a few weeks
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitcrypto“i it's entirely likely that you know ada pumps in you know in anticipation of that of that release but that doesn't mean it's going to continue going off state after the release”
ADA (Cardano) rallies in anticipation of the Shelley release within a few weeks
- Made on
- 2020-07-16
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.96
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2020-07-26
ADA price rises materially (≥15%) above its 2020-07-16 level at some point before 2020-10-16
Criterion (ADA ≥15% above its 2020-07-16 level of ~$0.1329, i.e. ≥~$0.1528, at any point before 2020-10-16) is met: daily peak ~$0.1540 on 2020-07-26. This is a borderline pass (~15.9%) on daily-average data; a different price source could shift the exact percentage by ~1pp, but intraday highs comfortably exceed 15%. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
Cardano: Will price keep rising?
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
CoinCodex daily ADA history: price on 2020-07-16 was ~$0.1329; the maximum inside the 2020-07-16→2020-10-16 window was ~$0.1540 on 2020-07-26 (+15.9% vs the 07-16 level), clearing the ≥15% criterion. Margin is thin (~0.9pp) on daily VWAP data; intraday highs sit higher, so the threshold is met on any exchange series.
The rally preceded the Shelley mainnet hard fork of 2020-07-29 (staking rewards from 2020-08-18), consistent with a move 'in anticipation of Shelley within a few weeks'; contemporaneous coverage noted ADA surging and briefly becoming the 6th-largest crypto around the Shelley rollout.
Corrections
- tags: Crypto-vs-markets rule: a pure crypto price bet (ADA ≥15% rise) carries 'markets' as secondary so the market-timing track stays continuous.
Score contribution
+1.96- Confidence
- 90%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.96
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
ADA (Cardano) rallies in anticipation of the Shelley releas…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-07-16
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources