Prediction record
MissmarketsBitcoin's next bear-market bottom will occur around 2024.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Missmarkets“our next bottom would be like in 2024 or so”
Bitcoin's next bear-market bottom will occur around 2024.
- Made on
- 2020-06-09
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.33
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-12-31
Bitcoin's next cycle bear-market low is established during ~calendar 2024.
The written criterion asks whether the next cycle bear-market low was established during ~2024. The actual bear-market bottom was Nov 2022, ~2 years earlier, and 2024 set new all-time highs. Resolvable; evidence indicates the criterion was not met. (Interpretation of 'around 2024' vs the observed 2022 bottom is a scoring/quantify-stage judgment, not assigned here.)
Sources
Bitcoin: Measuring valley to valley
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin's next cycle bear-market low was established in November 2022 at ~$15,500-$15,742 (post-FTX collapse), NOT in 2024. Reuters/CNBC report BTC fell to $15,586.94 on 2022-11-21, its lowest since Nov 2020.
By 2024 Bitcoin was in a new bull market making fresh all-time highs — $73,581 on 2024-03-14 (pre-halving ATH) and above $100,000 in December 2024 ($108,135 on 2024-12-17). No bear-market bottom occurred in 2024; it was a bull-market/new-ATH year.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-1.33- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.33
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin's next bear-market bottom will occur around 2024.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-06-09
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources