Full record
HitmarketsBitcoin will reach roughly $40,000-$50,000 by/around the 2024 halving
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“going up from saying a fair valuation of 8,000 to 40 to 50,000 by 2024 seems like a likely scenario”
Bitcoin will reach roughly $40,000-$50,000 by/around the 2024 halving
- Made on
- 2020-05-13
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.76
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-04-19
Bitcoin's price reaches approximately $40,000-$50,000 by around the 2024 halving.
Criterion is 'reaches approximately $40,000-$50,000 by around the 2024 halving.' BTC verifiably reached and traded within that band in Dec 2023-Feb 2024, then continued upward to ~$63.7k at the halving (2024-04-19) and $73.7k in March 2024. So the ~$40k-$50k level was reached before/around the halving; at the halving itself BTC exceeded the band. How to treat 'reached the level but then exceeded it' vs. an implied end-state target is a quantify-stage judgment; both facts documented here. Deadline 2024-12-31 passed.
Sources
Bitcoin fair valuation at the next halving in 2024
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Bitcoin first crossed $40,000 in early December 2023 and traded within/through the $40k-$50k band in the run-up to the halving: it averaged $42,919.61 in January 2024 and jumped to ~$46,620 after the SEC approved 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs on 2024-01-10. So BTC did reach the stated ~$40k-$50k range in the months around (before) the 2024 halving.
On the fourth-halving day (block 840,000, 2024-04-19/20 UTC) Bitcoin's price was ~$63,762 — i.e., by 'around the halving' BTC had risen above the $40k-$50k band, having passed through it in Dec 2023-Feb 2024 (Feb close ~$61,113; mid-March ATH $73,737.94).
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.76- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin will reach roughly $40,000-$50,000 by/around the 20…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-05-13
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources