Prediction record
MisscryptoBitcoin does not break above its 20-week moving average imminently; the recovery is drawn-out
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misscrypto“I don't think we're about to imminently get above the 20 week. Um I think this is going to be a drawn-out process”
Bitcoin does not break above its 20-week moving average imminently; the recovery is drawn-out
- Made on
- 2020-04-06
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.31
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2020-07-06
BTC does not sustain a break above its 20-week MA within ~3 months of 2020-04-06
Criterion depends on the 20-week SMA. The 20-week SMA in early May 2020 (spanning ~mid-Dec 2019 to early May 2020, a window including the Feb 2020 ~$10.5k top and the March ~$3.8-5k crash) sat roughly in the ~$8,000-$8,500 area. BTC's move to ~$9,000-$10,000 in early May and its hold above ~$9,000 into July constitutes a sustained break above the 20-week MA within the ~3-month window — contradicting the 'does not break above imminently / drawn-out recovery' claim. Caveat: the exact 20-week SMA value is indicator-dependent (source/interval choices shift it by a few hundred dollars), but the margin between price (~$9-10k) and the MA (~$8-8.5k) is large enough that the qualitative outcome (a break occurred, and quickly) is robust. Status kept as resolved; the exact numeric MA is left to the quantify/score stage rather than flagged for human review given the clear price evidence.
Sources
Bitcoin Risk and Price Analysis
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
On 2020-04-06 BTC was ~$6,800-7,300 (post-March-crash recovery). It crossed $10,000 on May 7, 2020 — about one month later — and the May 2020 average close was ~$9,263, holding above ~$9,000 through much of May-July 2020. Rising from ~$6.8k to ~$10k within a month and sustaining ~$9k is a decisive, non-drawn-out recovery.
Supporting price series: May 2020 daily BTC prices (StatMuse) show BTC sustained in the ~$8,600-$10,000 band across May, well above early-April levels.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+0.31- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.31
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin does not break above its 20-week moving average imm…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-04-06
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources