Prediction record
MisscryptoThe next Bitcoin cycle peak will occur no earlier than the end of 2022.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misscrypto“the earliest we would have the next cycle peak would be the end of 2022”
The next Bitcoin cycle peak will occur no earlier than the end of 2022.
- Made on
- 2020-04-26
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.33
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-12-31
The next Bitcoin bull-market cycle top occurs on or after 2022-12-31 (i.e., no cyclical price peak forms before the end of 2022).
Criterion ('next Bitcoin bull-market cycle top occurs on or after 2022-12-31, i.e. no cyclical peak forms before end of 2022') was not met: the cycle peak formed 2021-11-10, more than a year before the end of 2022, and the subsequent 2022 bear market confirmed it as the cycle top (unsurpassed until March 2024). resolved_on set to 2022-12-31, the point by which the pre-2022-end peak was fully established. Evidence unambiguous and non-conflicting.
Sources
The Bitcoin halving approaches! Here is what to expect
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
The Bitcoin cycle following the April 2020 statement peaked at ~$69,000 on 2021-11-10 (nominal record ~$68,982), which is BEFORE the end of 2022 — earlier than the 'no earlier than end of 2022' criterion.
The Nov 2021 ~$69k print was confirmed as the cycle top: it stood as BTC's all-time high until March 2024, with a deep bear market through 2022 (BTC fell to ~$15.5k), establishing Nov 2021 as the cyclical peak.
Corrections
- tags: BTC cycle/price call → 'crypto' primary + 'markets' secondary.
Score contribution
-1.33- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.33
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The next Bitcoin cycle peak will occur no earlier than the…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-04-26
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources