Full record
MisscryptoThe next Bitcoin cycle peak will occur no earlier than the end of 2022.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Misscrypto“the earliest we would have the next cycle peak would be the end of 2022”
The next Bitcoin cycle peak will occur no earlier than the end of 2022.
- Made on
- 2020-04-26
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.33
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-12-31
The next Bitcoin bull-market cycle top occurs on or after 2022-12-31 (i.e., no cyclical price peak forms before the end of 2022).
Criterion ('next Bitcoin bull-market cycle top occurs on or after 2022-12-31, i.e. no cyclical peak forms before end of 2022') was not met: the cycle peak formed 2021-11-10, more than a year before the end of 2022, and the subsequent 2022 bear market confirmed it as the cycle top (unsurpassed until March 2024). resolved_on set to 2022-12-31, the point by which the pre-2022-end peak was fully established. Evidence unambiguous and non-conflicting.
Sources
The Bitcoin halving approaches! Here is what to expect
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The Bitcoin cycle following the April 2020 statement peaked at ~$69,000 on 2021-11-10 (nominal record ~$68,982), which is BEFORE the end of 2022 — earlier than the 'no earlier than end of 2022' criterion.
The Nov 2021 ~$69k print was confirmed as the cycle top: it stood as BTC's all-time high until March 2024, with a deep bear market through 2022 (BTC fell to ~$15.5k), establishing Nov 2021 as the cyclical peak.
Corrections
- tags: BTC cycle/price call → 'crypto' primary + 'markets' secondary.
Effect on the score
-1.33- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The next Bitcoin cycle peak will occur no earlier than the…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-04-26
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources