Full record

Hitcrypto

Bitcoin will not reach $100,000 before Q4 2022; Q4 2022 is the earliest possible timing.

A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .

VideoQuote from the original sourcecryptomarkets

Scored prediction

Hitcrypto

the the fourth quarter of 2022 would be the earliest we would see a new paradigm shift of say a hundred thousand dollars per Bitcoin

Bitcoin will not reach $100,000 before Q4 2022; Q4 2022 is the earliest possible timing.

Made on
2020-04-30
Outcome
Hit
Importance
3 / 5
Effect on score
+2.27

What counted as right

Status
resolved
Settled on
2022-10-01

Bitcoin does not trade at or above $100,000 at any point before 2022-10-01.

Criterion is that BTC does NOT trade >= $100,000 before 2022-10-01. Confirmed satisfied: pre-deadline ATH was ~$69k (Nov 2021), roughly 30% below the $100k threshold. Bitcoin's first-ever move above $100,000 came in December 2024, well after the deadline. No conflicting credible evidence; resolution is unambiguous. resolved_on set to the deadline (2022-10-01), the date the no-touch window closed. Outcome value (o) and scoring deliberately not assigned — later stage.

Sources

  • Bitcoin price surges as the halving looms

    YouTube ·

    Source

Evidence of what happened

  • Bitcoin's all-time high prior to the 2022-10-01 deadline was $68,982.20, set on November 10, 2021. This record stood untouched until March 2024, meaning BTC never traded at or above $100,000 at any point before 2022-10-01 — the written criterion holds.

    Evidence

  • Bloomberg confirms Bitcoin did not exceed its November 2021 record (~$69,000) again until March 5, 2024, so no price at or above $100,000 occurred in the relevant window (2020-04-30 through 2022-10-01).

    Evidence

Corrections

  • tags: Scoreable BTC price/timing call → 'crypto' primary + 'markets' secondary; keeps the crypto sub-score track consistent with the other BTC scoreable records.

Effect on the score

+2.27
How sure they sounded
65%
Outcome
Hit
Importance
3 / 5

This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.

Where this came from

Bitcoin will not reach $100,000 before Q4 2022; Q4 2022 is…
Methodology version
v1.0.0
Last computed
August 2, 2026
Made on
2020-04-30

How this profile was built

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