Full record
HitsocietyUS COVID-19 confirmed cases will rise sharply — to several multiples of the ~1,000 baseline — within the next several days to weeks.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitsociety“I would expect that to move up substantially several times over the next several days”
US COVID-19 confirmed cases will rise sharply — to several multiples of the ~1,000 baseline — within the next several days to weeks.
- Made on
- 2020-03-12
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.68
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2020-03-16
US confirmed COVID-19 cases exceed ~3,000 (several multiples of the ~1,000 baseline) at any point by the deadline.
Criterion (>~3,000 at any point by 2020-06-12) met unambiguously and rapidly. Threshold crossed ~2020-03-16; by the deadline US cases were ~2 million. Clean pass on the written criterion.
Sources
Coronavirus cases continue to grow exponentially
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
US confirmed COVID-19 cases surpassed 3,000 on March 16, 2020 — four days after the 2020-03-12 claim (baseline ~1,000) — far exceeding the ~3,000 threshold and well within the deadline window.
CDC MMWR case-surveillance data (Jan 22–May 30, 2020) documents the sharp exponential rise in US cases through March–May 2020; cumulative US cases were in the millions by June 2020, multiples above the ~1,000 baseline.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.68- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US COVID-19 confirmed cases will rise sharply — to several…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-03-12
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources